A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Mosaic (MOS Quick QuoteMOS - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 7.6% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Mosaic due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Mosaic's Earnings and Revenues Miss Estimates in Q1

Mosaic logged profits of $1,182 million or $3.19 per share in first-quarter 2022, up from $156.7 million or 41 cents in the year-ago quarter.

Barring one-time items, adjusted earnings per share were $2.41, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.44.

Net sales rose roughly 71% year over year to $3,922.3 million in the quarter. The figure missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4,106.3 million. Sales were driven by gains in all segments and higher year-over-year prices.

Segment Highlights

Net sales in the Potash segment rose to around $1.06 billion in the reported quarter, from $477 million in the prior year quarter. The upside was driven by higher prices, partly offset by reduced volumes. Sales volumes in the segment declined to 1.8 million tons from 2 million tons in the year-ago quarter. The segment’s gross margin per ton increased to $323 from $71 in the year-ago quarter.

The Phosphate division’s net sales climbed around 50% year over year to $1.5 billion in first-quarter 2022, driven by higher prices. Sales volumes in the segment fell 19% year over year in the quarter. Gross margin per ton in the quarter was $318, up from $84 in the year-ago quarter.
 
Net sales in the Mosaic Fertilizantes segment were around $1.49 billion in the quarter, up around 95.3% year over year, driven by higher year-over-year prices. Sales volume in the quarter declined to 1.8 million tons from 2.1 million tons. The gross margin per ton in the quarter was $120, up around 140% year over year.

Financials

At the end of the quarter, Mosaic had cash and cash equivalents of $881.9 million, up from $769.5 million in the previous quarter. Long-term debt declined to $3,377.6 million from $3,382.2 million in the prior quarter.

Net cash provided by operating activities increased roughly 58.8% year over year to $506.2 million in the reported quarter.

Outlook

Moving ahead, the company noted that it expects higher annual production across its global platform in both potash and phosphates, led by the completed ramp-up of Esterhazy K3, a higher run-rate at Colonsay and recovery of phosphate output from its North American operations. It takes responsibility for helping the world grow the food it needs and is working to mitigate some of the impact of lower global supply by efficiently boosting output, the company noted.

The company forecasts total capital expenditures of $1.3 billion for full-year 2022. It projects selling, general and administrative expenses in the range of $400-$420 million.

Mosaic expects Phosphate segment sales volumes of 1.9-2.1 million tons and Potash sales volumes of 2.4-2.6 million tons for the second quarter.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in fresh estimates.

The consensus estimate has shifted 10.55% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Mosaic has a nice Growth Score of B, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Mosaic has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.